title taken from “No, No, No! Don't Touch Essequibo” by Terry Gajraj

The Question of the Essequibo

On December 3rd, Venezuela will hold a referendum to decide whether to formally claim Essequibo, a region long disputed with Guyana, as a Venezuelan state. Should they decide to move forward with the claim, Guyana would lose over 70% of its territory, much of which has been the source of the nation’s newfound wealth.

It is a significant escalation in frictions between the countries that have increased since oil exploration operations by ExxonMobil and other companies in offshore areas in 2015. Guyana boasts oil reserves of at least 10 billion barrels (more per capita than Brunei, Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates). The nation recently announced a "significant" new oil discovery in Essequibo and said it had awarded bids to eight companies to drill for crude in its waters; however Venezuela maintains that Guyana does not have jurisdiction to grant concessions in maritime areas off the Essequibo.

In the lead-up to the decision, the Venezuelan government has significantly increased security nationwide, mobilizing over 350,000 troops to safeguard against possible sabotage. The Guyanese government has also established military bases in the contested area.

The referendum comes on the heels of Venezuela’s disputed primary elections held in October 2023. Citizens voted to name a candidate to oppose President Maduro in the 2024 election. However, Venezuela’s high court called into question the validity of the election and ordered organizers to hand in documents identifying millions of voters (especially those living abroad).

The vote is a clear indication of the dissent of the population. The country has endured economic and political instability for years. María Corina Machado, a pro-free market former lawmaker and the opposition’s frontrunner, will challenge Maduro on a number of issues facing the country, primarily its economic future.

“People’s time is consumed by economic gymnastics. They may afford food today, but not tomorrow. They may get a government stipend today, but not tomorrow. They may fill up a tank with subsidized gasoline today, but not tomorrow.” (Associated Press)

In fact, the claim of the Essequibo is the only issue upon which Maduro and his opponents agree.

Maduro maintains that the referendum is a necessary step toward economic growth. Machado, however, has denounced the vote and said Venezuela should take the fight to the U.N.’s International Court of Justice instead.

While this may seem like a skirmish limited to the two South American nations, this has received global attention as power nations have vested interests in the outcome. The Biden administration, aware Maduro has bent the law, retaliated against opponents and breached agreements before, has given Venezuela’s government until the end of November to establish a timeline and process to quickly reinstate all political candidates. If Maduro does not meet the deadline, the U.S. government will reverse some of the sanctions relief, plunging the country into another cycle of economic instability.

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping in September signed thirty-one documents including pledges, agreements, and memorandums of understanding. Maduro announced that one of the agreements may make it possible to export coffee, avocados, and seafood to China as well as gain funding for aerospace initiatives.

Yep. Once again, a political conflict boils down to the U.S. versus China. Eh, at least global politics are consistent.

Update:

The United Nations’ ICJ just ruled that Venezuela should not take action to seize control of the Essequibo region.

From the Washington Post:

“Venezuela’s expressed readiness to take action with regard to the territory in dispute in these proceedings at any moment following the referendum” showed that there is “a real and imminent risk of irreparable prejudice to Guyana’s plausible right before the court gives its final decision.”

Venezuela’s government, however, interpreted the ruling as a victory saying in a statement released by the Ministry of Communication and Information that the court had “rejected” Guyana’s request.

Venezuela does not recognize the International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction in the decades-old dispute over the Essequibo region and is expected to press ahead with the referendum.